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Tropic Topic 9/25/08: T.S. Kyle is here, and what is that off the southeast coast?

Well, you may already know that the low pressure area tagged as invest 93l for the last several days has finally developed a closed surface circulation and has therefore been dubbed Tropical Storm Kyle by the National Hurricane Center at 5pm today. (Live updating infrared satellite image.) The storm’s current position is a bit northeast [...]

We have TD 7

Public Advisory #1: TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 …TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN… … SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. [...]

94L 8am update

At 4:35am EDT the NHC had this to say: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 435 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND RADAR DATA FROM THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL [...]

Invest 94L finally organzing

The National Hurricane Center just issued their 2am Tropical Weather Outlook and they’ve upgraded Invest 94L (yes it’s still around after nearly a week of not developing!) to a “high” probability of developing into something more than just an Invest in the next 48 hours. Here’s what they have to say: A BROAD AREA OF [...]

TS Fay strengthens over land…um, what?

That’s right. The last two National Hurricane Center Public Advisories (16A and 16B) have reported Tropical Storm Fay’s top winds as 65MPH, the highest in the whole history of the storm and 5MPH higher than the winds at landfall early this morning. Also, check out the difference between these two radar images from UCAR: the [...]

I was wrong: an analysis of TS Fay's track

Well, wrong in my predictions, not necessarily my observations. I am speaking of Tropical Storm Fay and my assertion a few days ago that the NHC was showing a leftward bias in their forecasting of the storm and that TS Fay might actually make final landfall in the Florida panhandle or even farther west, and [...]

TS Fay Evening Update

Oh look, the models have spread out again. The NHC is still holding on to their track on the eastern side of the model consensus despite the fact that Tropical Storm Fay still continues to “break left”, e.g. go slightly left of where it’s predicted to go. Perhaps I shouldn’t be so hard on them, [...]

Tropical Storm Fay 5am update

Not really a lot to say, I just felt like updating again (anything to avoid going to bed). The computer forecasting models have shifted a tiny bit more to the left again, and I expect they’ll continue doing so with each new run. This storm has been doing this ever since they started running forecasting [...]

TS Fay 11pm update

The latest National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion on Tropical Storm Fay has some interesting passages it in: MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I AM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST…I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE [...]

Cool Stuff, Aug. 14 edition

It’s 5:09am, e.g. past bedtime for me (the new school semester starts in less than 1.5 weeks and I have a 9am class 4 days a week…eeks!) but I thought I’d spare some time for a list of today’s Cool Stuff: Today I was happy to find that Jerome Armstrong, a regular MyDD front-page poster, [...]