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Atlantic Tropical Update 5pm 9/2: the Haiti attraction

Seriously, what did that country do to piss off the 2008 Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes so much? First Tropical Storm Fay dumps tons of rain on the country, than Gustav lingers longer than expected over the country and kills a few dozen people (probably helped by all the rain Fay dropped on the country), [...]

TS Fay 4am update + forecast

I guess I haven’t posted an update on Tropical Storm Fay in 22 hours. NHC Public Advisory 26A says: FAY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH…8 KM/HR. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF [...]

Forecasting fail: TS Fay 5am update

I said at 3:46am: More updates from the NHC coming at 5am EDT. I expect them to probably shift the track a liiiittle bit to the right And the NHC said at 5am: THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE [...]

NHC 2am advisory on TS Fay

Here’s what the NHC has to say at 2am about the movement I mentioned a couple of hours ago (see how Tropical Storm Fay is doing on radar now): FAY HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH…3 KM/HR…DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING [...]

TS Fay begins slow westward movement

According to this 2-hour radar loop from the Melbourne, FL radar ending at 1am EDT Tropical Storm Fay seems to have started moving again (after being stationary for several hours) in a slow westward direction, making landfall (again) directly over Daytona Beach. After that the official NHC forecast has the storm moving northwest or west-northwest [...]

8pm update: Fay stronger, stalled off the coast of Florida

NHC Advisory #21 (5pm): REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION…28.8 N…80.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB. NHC Intermediate Advisory #21A (8pm): REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…29.0 N…80.3 W. MOVEMENT…STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB. I guess that 74 degree water isn’t much [...]

Oh, Fay

Oh, Tropical Storm Fay. When will you begin acting normally? Oh yeah, I forgot, Atlantic Tropical Weather is never normal! OK, now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s see what TS Fay is up to, shall we? First of all, it took about 24 hours to cross Florida, and dumped a ton [...]

TS Fay strengthens over land…um, what?

That’s right. The last two National Hurricane Center Public Advisories (16A and 16B) have reported Tropical Storm Fay’s top winds as 65MPH, the highest in the whole history of the storm and 5MPH higher than the winds at landfall early this morning. Also, check out the difference between these two radar images from UCAR: the [...]

On TS Fay

*grumble**grumble*eastward movement*grumble**grumble* Bed now. Postmortem on my forecasting skillz tomorrow. -j

TS Fay 6pm Monday update

Is that an eyewall I see forming? Key West, FL radar image from 6:07pm EDT: (Click for 1-hour current radar loop.) It very well may be, this is what the NHC has to say in their 5pm Forecast Discussion on Tropical Storm Fay: SATELLITE…RADAR…AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. [...]