Jimmy

OK, maybe it’s not THAT crazy, but I find it amusing, mostly how the National Hurricane Center is handling the whole thing.

Some history:

It’s August and we’ve yet to see a Tropical Storm in the Atlantic. Last year at this time T.S. Fay (the 6th storm of the season) was just forming. All in all, it’s been REALLY BORING in the Atlantic, and I’m guessing (being a weather/hurricane nut just as I’m assuming most of the NHC forecasters are) that the good folks down at the National Hurricane Center might be getting a wee bit bored?

So when T.D. 2 formed last Tuesday morning I imagine it was a bit of a celebration in the office (sometime I need to take a post and explain the fine balance between concerned for the safety of those in harms way and oh finally something is gonna happen I was about to explode this is so exciting I love storms even though I’m not a sadist that I think most severe weather nuts experience).

Almost 24 hours later (on Wednesday morning) the storm was looking so good that I tweeted my belief that at Advisory 4 (24 hours after the initial advisory) the system would become Tropical Storm Ana (with winds of at least 40mph).

Alas, all was not well with our newest Tropical Depression. By Wednesday evening, barely 36 hours after it formed, the NHC was reporting that it was basically dead but they kept issuing advisories on the system. This turn of events prompted me to create a twitvid on Thursday morning noting my amusement that the NHC was still issuing advisories on a system that they themselves were saying was basically dead.

Finally on Thursday evening, 24 hours after the storm died according to the NHC, they stopped advisories.

Later that evening I logged on and looked at satellite images of the storm only to be amused to see that T.D. 2 was playing cat-and-mouse with the NHC by visibly increasing in organization after the Center had stopped officially issuing advisories on the storm. By Friday afternoon it seemed obvious to me that T.D. 2 was determined to makes fools of the NHC forecasters who had (rightfully) pulled the plug on the storm the day before.

It took until 12:30am tonight for the NHC to decide that T.D. 2 was back and re-start advisories on the system. To the Center’s credit, according to the forecast discussion they waited for data from no less than four different sources (satellite images, surface wind data recorded via satellite, buoy data and data from a special NOAA jet equipped to fly over hurricanes and tropical weather) before reinstating advisories on the storm. Fool me once, shame on you, feel me twice, shame on the overeager NHC forecasters, right?

The current forecast calls for the storm to become a Tropical Storm on Saturday evening and to pass over or near the northeastern Caribbean islands on Monday.

I know weather forecasting is supposed to be all about science and hard facts, but I’ve seen enough crazy weather (including tropical storms that just screw with the forecasters trying to keep one step ahead of them) that I’m a firm believer in individual storms sometimes just having a mind of their own, and if the story of T.D. 2 so far tells me anything, it’s that this system might just be one of those storms.

Buckle up, it’s gonna be a fun ride.

-j

Posted in: Weather by jimmy2 /