Jimmy

Well, you may already know that the low pressure area tagged as invest 93l for the last several days has finally developed a closed surface circulation and has therefore been dubbed Tropical Storm Kyle by the National Hurricane Center at 5pm today.

(Live updating infrared satellite image.)

The storm’s current position is a bit northeast of the lower Bahamas and moving north, so it’s not likely to be a threat to any land for several days save for being a possible concern to Bermuda, but it’s predicted by most of the computer prediction models and the official NHC forecast to pass west of that island.

In fact, the first land Kyle is predicted to seriously affect is the Canadian Maritime Provinces and eastern New England USA late this coming weekend. By then the storm is predicted to have reached hurricane status over the Gulf Stream and then fallen back down to Tropical Storm strength. It seems likely that Kyle will merge with the frontal system attached to the low pressure system currently off the coast of the Carolinas around that time, as well.

That system seemed to be looking like it might become sub-tropical for a while there (one of my professors saw the satellite loop of it on my computer and thought it was a tropical system this afternoon, also it’s been tagged invest 94l) but it’s now almost over land and will likely not be named by the NHC. A post-season analysis will likely be conducted on the system to determine if it was tropical enough to be upgraded post-season, but my thought is that while it’s close to sub-tropical status it doesn’t deserve to be upgraded/named.

My prediction for this system is that it will hang around the southeast for 24-36 hours (bringing much needed rain for some areas in the region) while the low pressure center begins to weaken. By Saturday, the energy associated with this system will begin to be drawn northeast (with whatever low pressure center is left of it) and will begin to merge with (Hurricane by then?) Kyle.

(Read the rest of the entry for more of my [amateur!] analysis of the two systems over the next several days.)

Kyle will likely make landfall in the area of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Maine on Sunday. (Side note: it’s important to remember that any small leftward deviations from the current forecast track would mean much more of an effect on central or western New England from this tropical cyclone, as it is Cape Cod looks like it’ll get high winds and seas on Saturday night and Sunday.) The models differ somewhat on exact timing, as well as exact landfall location to some degree, as well. The important thing that all the models seem to agree on (no matter the timing) is that the remains of 94l will be drawn into Kyle starting possibly as soon as Friday night. Additionally a cold front is predicted to be moving out of central Canada and into eastern Canada and the United States, which will likely merge with Kyle just after landfall on Sunday.

Can you tell this is all very complex? My head kinda hurts trying to figure it all out. The hurricane is actually pretty easy to predict (aside from the timing, the track so far is fairly straightforward) but it’s the other factors, the low over the southeast and the incoming cold front that are the “wild” factors.

Hopefully tomorrow things will settle down a bit with the model disagreement. For now we know this: a hurricane or strong tropical storm (Kyle) will be near New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Sunday. Kyle will likely merge with one or more low pressure areas and/or cold fronts while it’s near landfall. The details of said mergers are unclear at this point.

Stay tuned! And stay safe!

-j

Posted in: Weather by jimmy2 / Tags: Canada, Kyle, New England, Tropical Weather, Weather