93l not T.D. yet, but could become one soon September 21, 2008 at 5:00 pm
At 4:15pm EDT the NHC issued another Special Tropical Disturbance Statement regarding invest 93l:
SATELLITE IMAGERY…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA…AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER…THE DATA SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO…THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
This statement seems a little less “bullish” than the ones earlier today, but it still tells us that 93L is only one step away from becoming a Tropical Depression: all that needs to happen is for a closed surface circulation to form.
The 18z (2pm EDT) computer prediction model data has come in, and most of the models seem to be coming into consensus behind a track generally toward the north, with perhaps a turn toward the north-northwest or northwest in several days:
I’m not sure how this plays into my theory of this system merging with the predicted Nor’easter, but I think that given how close the two systems are forecasted to be late this week that it’s still possible or likely that they’ll merge. We’ll see.
As for intensity, the consensus of the 18z models forecasts the system to be Tropical Storm Kyle by tomorrow afternoon and to reach hurricane force by Thursday afternoon or evening. There’s quite a bit of spread in the predictions even a couple of days out, but they all bring the system to tropical storm force by Monday night. This, of course, is dependent on the surface circulation closing off really soon, but I think that’s likely to happen within the next 12-24 hours.
Until later, stay safe and sound everyone.
Cheerio!
-j
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