93l better organized, could become T.D. "at any time" September 21, 2008 at 2:42 pm
At 10:30am EDT the National Hurricane Center had this to say about invest 93l:
SATELLITE IMAGERY…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.
By 2pm, this is what they had to say:
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY…AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH ITS STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH. A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WAS REPORTED AT ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION…A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON…IF NECESSARY…WHICH COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
It sounds to me like the NHC is ready to start issuing advisories on this system, but they’re just waiting for the data from the hurricane hunters before doing so. Given the reported wind gust of Tropical Storm strength at St. Thomas, which is more than 100 miles from the center, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hurricane Hunters find this system to already be Tropical Storm Kyle. Of course it’s all dependent on the storm having a closed surface circulation, if there’s no closed surface circulation the wind speed doesn’t matter because it’s not considered a tropical cyclone.
We’ll know soon enough, though, so I guess it’s just time to wait. In the meantime, the storm seems to have a nice (mid-level?) spin in San Juan radar, as well as visible satellite imagery.
As for where the system is heading, there seem to be two schools of thought among the computer prediction models (click on “storm 93″ for plots of this system)(also see this plot for a slightly different set of models): first is that the storm will slowly move west-northwest or northwest along the northern coast of Hispaniola before taking a north-northeastward turn, second is that the storm will move more quickly off toward the north or north-northwest. As for me, I’m going to split the difference and say the storm will head off on a heading just north of northwest and will travel just to the northeast of the Bahamas before being absorbed into the Nor’easter that’s predicted to form off the coast of Florida in several days.
Alright. That’s all I’ve got for now. Stay safe everyone.
-j
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